Summary
- Emotions are the greatest force that drives the markets
- Extreme fear has historically accompanied major market bottoms
- Extreme greed combined with complacency have historically been present at market tops
- A prudent money manager will look for extreme fear to buy and high levels of complacency to sell or go defensive.
- After starting 2009 in extreme fear we entered into 2010 with a very high level of complacency
- Because the market became overly complacent early this year, we made moves to go defensive
- We believe the potential downside risk is greater than the potential upside gain.
- Going forward we will remain defensive until the market presents better opportunities

com·pla·cent
–adjective
1. pleased, esp. with oneself or one’s merits, advantages, situation, etc., often without awareness of some potential danger or defect;
(dictionary.com)

For the waywardness of the simple will kill them, and the complacency of fools will destroy them;
- Proverbs 1:32

When a great team loses through complacency, it will constantly search for new and more intricate explanations to explain away defeat. - Pat Riley

How Fear and Greed Drive the Market
Many analysts, academics and economists will tell you that markets make moves in certain directions because of “Fundamentals” (earnings growth, economic trends, etc.) and/or “Technicals” (momentum, money flow, breakouts, etc.). To some degree they are correct, but in my opinion the greatest force that moves the markets are the emotions of fear and greed. Both fear and greed are huge motivational factors in the market. In general, fear will cause people to sell and greed will cause them to buy. Extreme fear is usually accompanied by panic and historically that is when market bottoms are formed. This phenomenon occurs because massive amounts of people will capitulate (surrender) and sell regardless of the price, at which point the supply of sellers will virtually dry up leaving very few people left to sell. Wise institutional investors will take advantage of this rare moment and buy shares at extremely low levels. Then, the rest of the market will follow once they see prices rising providing a significant level of demand that will give the market a sustainable amount of buy orders (demand) in order to push the market up for a long period of time. An example of extreme fear would have been in late 2008 and early 2009. It was no coincidence that a significant bottom was formed during that time and a great buying opportunity occurred. On the other hand, extreme greed is usually accompanied by complacency or a lack of fear that the market will fall. Extreme greed and complacency historically mark market tops. Extreme complacency will cause the market to be vulnerable because virtually everyone believes the market will go higher so everybody would already be invested leaving very little potential demand of new buyers. Conversely this leaves an abundance of potential sellers (supply). An example of extreme greed was in late 1999 or early 2000 when the majority felt that they had to buy into stocks and there was little fear of the market falling. A prudent money manager will look for extreme fear to buy and high levels of complacency to sell or go defensive.

After starting 2009 in extreme fear we entered into 2010 with a very high level of complacency. Even after going through the worst bear market since the “Great Depression” you would think that the majority of people would still be recovering from the massive scars that markets left them with in 2008. Although, admittedly not everyone feels like the economy is on sound footing, according to most indicators that measure sentiment the market became very complacent in early January and still has a high level of complacency considering everything that we just went through over the last couple of years. The main way that we measure complacency and fear is by looking at the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). Historically, when the indicator is high (above 40) it is considered extreme fear and when the indicator is low (below 20) it’s considered a high level of complacency. In (Figure 1) below you will see that when the VIX hits high levels above 40 the market has bottomed and when the VIX goes below 20 the market has topped.

(figure 1) (Click on the graph for larger image)

Our Recent Market Moves
Because the market became overly complacent early this year, we made moves to go defensive and take profits on many of our positions that we bought in late 2008 and early 2009. In our actively traded accounts we now hold about 40-50% of the entire portfolio in cash. Plus we’ve bought into long-term government bonds as a hedge against a falling market. Long-term government bonds are considered a safe haven play. I know that may be hard to believe because of our large government deficits and high amounts of government debt, but it is true still to this day. In fact, in 2008 when the market was down nearly 40%, long-term treasuries were up over 30% for the year. In our strategically allocated accounts I have increased some cash, but mainly we have transitioned a portion of the riskier assets like commodities, emerging markets, international equities and small caps over to more domestic value stocks and other traditionally more stable areas. Similarly we have transitioned our bond portfolios from riskier funds into traditionally safer areas. The moves were made because of the potential market pullback. Certain factors historically point towards a more aggressive investment position, a good example would be early 2009 when stocks were at decade lows and there were extreme levels of fear and other circumstances point towards a defensive posture, like the beginning of this year when some stocks indices had rallied over 70% or more in a matter of 9 months. After the market has moved that much to the upside in that short of time combined with a high level of complacency there is cause for concern which is why we went defensive.

Strategy Going Forward
We plan on remaining in a defensive posture in the attempt to preserve wealth and to be ready for when the market pulls back. We will attempt to wait for high levels of fear in order to purchase equities at lower prices than what they are going for now. If the market pulls back as anticipated, we will be ready to put some of the cash back to work. But for now we believe the potential downside risk is greater than the potential upside gain. So we will remain defensive until that environment changes. A wise money manager will always try to target a greater amount of potential gain than what they are willing to risk and currently those opportunities are not readily available. Once they become available we will try and take advantage of them again.

Allgen’s Investment Approach
Allgen specializes in active money management. Through technical and fundamental analysis, along with a contrarian mindset, we strive to navigate the markets during periods of prosperity and/or decline. We constantly research and study the markets to find the next emerging area even in asset classes that are typically not used in your “buy and hold” asset allocation portfolios. During the good times we focus on strength, and during the bad times we try to preserve wealth. During periods of stagnation, such as we are experiencing now and potentially years to come, we see ample opportunities to take advantage of this market. If you want to see how active money management may fit into your overall investment portfolio then please email us advisors@allgenfinancial.com or give us a call at 1-888-6ALLGEN (625-5436).

Written By:
Jason Martin, CFP®, CMT
Senior Partner & Chief Investment Officer
Allgen Financial Services, Inc.
martin@allgenfinancial.com
888.6ALLGEN

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Unemployment is on the rise, gross domestic product is still hovering in negative territory, our national debt is being protested in the streets across America and word is out that the US Treasury is printing more of the greenback to offset bailout initiatives coming out of Washington. In addition to this, United Nation officials are discussing the possibility of creating a world currency to replace the US dollar in the world economy. From the outside looking in, it would seem as though we were under an economic attack yet while the media focuses on the great political divide, a story is emerging from the other side of the globe that could change our economic landscape forever.

China has recently announced their plan to sell out of their U.S. dollar position, describing our economy as a “black whole”, with concerns of our treasury printing more dollars which would only hurt their position as they continue to carry $1.9 trillion of U.S. debt. This is not the first time Beijing has voiced concern over its massive exposure to the US dollar and it most likely will not be the last. In an effort to hedge their economy Beijing’s plan is to concentrate on building an inventory of copper and other industrial metals in order to grow their infrastructure over the next 50 years. Such little attention is being paid to this story that I’m starting to wonder whether or not American investors realize how significant this shift in Chinese policy is regarding the state of the U.S. economy.

As the world’s main reserve currency, the US dollar is used to set international market prices for oil, gold and other currencies. If Beijing abandons their support for the US dollar and the world embraces a “New World Currency” what will happen to the value of our money in the years to come? It doesn’t take much to figure out the answer to this question but in case you have not been on top of this story you should know that these events could have a devastating effect on our economy. The average citizen could see inflation like we have never seen before and investors will be left searching for answers of their own, wondering what to do with their money.

We are certainly navigating in uncharted waters but before you jump into your financial lifeboat let me say this, even during the great depression there were fortunes made by those who were able to follow the money flow. Understand that crisis will often produce opportunity but you have to be willing to seize the opportunities as they present themselves. Back in the early thirties investors didn’t have the news channels like we have today nor did they have the ability to move money as quickly as you can right now. On top of that, the average person didn’t have history as a guide because when the great depression hit, most people were caught off guard unable to hedge themselves with a plan. If you are willing to accept the fact that our world is rapidly changing then you are in great position to capture new profits as long as you are on top of the money flow. For example; if you knew that China was interested in accumulating a position in copper and other industrial metals, then why not invest in those commodities? Seizing opportunity doesn’t mean “buy and hold” till you die, it means looking ahead with an understanding that new trends are created every time an economic shift takes place. One idea for you is to look into commodity Exchange Traded Fund’s (ETF) these instruments take advantage of higher prices in the commodity markets through different portfolios that can include long positions held in Oil, Natural Gas, Zinc, Copper and Aluminum Futures. You don’t have to concentrate all of your money in such an investment but it may help put your mind at ease knowing you are at least moving with the money.

If you think the dollar is on the verge of a collapse, you might consider certain currency ETF’s that would appreciate when the value of the dollar falls. A falling dollar can lead to inflation so you might want to hedge your cash position. Historically, gold has been one of the best places to be when inflation hits the fan but these days you have a variety of ways to invest in this precious metal without having to worry about insurance or storage costs. There are certain ETF’s that allow you to benefit from higher gold prices without having to take delivery of any gold whatsoever.

Another investment that did very well in the 1970’s, while we were experiencing double digit inflation, was real estate. But let’s face it, the experts are still trying to figure out if this market has hit a bottom yet, so one way you can participate without having to worry about putting too much money in this market, is to look at the Real Estate and REIT ETF’s. No lawyers, real estate agents, or closing costs. It trades like a stock which makes it easier to manage risk. You can use stop loss orders on all these that I have mentioned and each can be easily tracked on a price chart.

The formula is simple. Identify the trend, invest your money in the direction of that trend, then, focus all of your attention on protecting your investments with stop loss orders. Above all, try not to fear this market, but instead seize the opportunities as they present themselves to you. We are no longer in a buy/hold environment, we have entered into the new age of buy and protect.

Written By: AJ Monte CMT
Chief Market Strategist
The Market Guys

If you are a do-it-yourself trader and you want to learn more about the strategies mentioned, feel free to visit: http://www.themarketguys.com

If you agree with the strategies mentioned, but you want a professional to manage your assets using some of the strategies above then contact Allgen Financial Services, Inc at (407) 210-3888 or advisors@allgenfinancial.com.

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A common rivalry in the financial world is “Buy & Hold” vs. “Active Money Management”. So which one is better? Simple answer…it depends! If you were to look at a long-term chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Figure 1) going back to 1900, then you would see alternating time periods of prosperity and times of stagnation (flat to negative growth). On average these alternating time periods are around 15-years in duration. During the three time periods of prosperity “buy and hold” investing provided solid returns. However, during the three periods of no growth “buy and hold” actually lost money especially during the periods of stagflation (which means no growth and high inflation) which caused significant losses in real returns (returns after inflation).

Figure 1
Sources: Ned Davis Research (Secular Bear Markets), WSJ Market Data Group (DJIA)

Figure (1) specifically shows that the market grew from the low in 1915 to 1929 leading up to the “Great Depression”, approximately 14 years of prosperity. Then during the “Great Depression” from 1929 to 1942 the market averaged an annualized loss of 10%. Then, spurred on by World War II the Dow went from 100 in 1942 to 1,000 in 1966 increasing tenfold during a time of prosperity. From 1966 to 1982, a 16 year period of no growth, the market averaged -1.5% per year. Jump started by Reaganomics, then propelled higher by the tech bubble the market had one of its greatest bull markets of all time. From 1982 through 2000 the Dow went from 1,000 to over 10,000. Finally, year 2000 until present we have experience a net loss after 9 years.

Stagflation in the 70’s
Let’s take a closer look at the previous period of stagflation from 1966 to 1982. (Figure 2) As you can see during that 16-year period there were some significant falls and some strong rallies. In fact, the market decline from 1973 to 1975 was a loss of almost 50%. The following year from the 1975 low of 577 to the 1976 high of 1,000 the DOW rallied nearly 75%. During that 16-year time period there were other extreme falls followed by impressive rallies. A good active money management strategy will thrive during those times compared to the “buy and hold” allocation. The “buy and hold” portfolio would have lost money during that’s same 16-year time period.

Recent Market Events
If you look at the most recent decade since 2000 through to the present day (Figure 2), you will see similar major swings in the market. The DOW from 2000 to the end of 2002 was down nearly 40%. During that same time period, the tech heavy NASDAQ was down over 75%! During the following 5-years, the market nearly doubled with almost a 100% return. Then, the biggest market decline since the “Great Depression” came. From November 2007 to March 2009, the DOW was down over 54%. And most recently, in the last 2-months alone, the DOW has increased over 30%. The biggest two month rally in the last 70-years.
Over the past nine years, if you had your money invested properly, it would have been possible to be more defensive during the bad times, like the bursting of the tech bubble and also during 2008. At the same time, it would have been possible to to take advantage of the bull market from 2003-2007 and the recent 30% bounce off the bottom.

Figure 2
Source: StockCharts.com

Advantages of Active Money Management
During the non-growth periods, the reputable active money managers would have most-likely outperformed the “buy and hold” group because of their ability to go cash during the bad times. In turn, being able to get back in the market as the market turned around. To be fair, not all active money managers would have done better than the “buy and hold” managers during those time periods. It is not easy to time when to get in and when to get out of the market. But, reputable active money managers with a solid understanding of technical and fundamental analysis combined with a contrarian mind set, will increase your chances of outperforming the market significantly during times of stagnation and stagflation.

Another major advantage an active money manager has is their ability to spot emerging areas of growth outside of the typical asset allocation, and focus a portion of the portfolio to take advantage of strength in specific sectors. The most recent example of this would be the growth of commodities during 2003-2008. Asset classes like steel, oil, natural gas, coal, fertilizers, etc. outperformed the stock market by over 300% during that same time period. Other examples would be REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) from 2000-2005. Real Estate related stocks outperformed the stock market significantly, experiencing positive moves even during the bear market from 2000-2002. Emerging markets from 2003-2008 far outperformed your typical asset allocation during the same time period. Good technicians (chartists) are able to spot and take advantage of new emerging sectors coming off of bottoms.

What’s Next?
I believe we are 9-years into a cyclical 15-year period of stagnation that began in the year 2000. I also believe there is a very good chance over the next year we will see inflation increase because of the amount of money the U.S. government and other governments around the world are spending. If history repeats itself, we will experience extreme volatility. This means we will have powerful moves upward followed by powerful moves downward. If you are in the “buy and hold” camp during this time period, you will be at a serious disadvantage to some active money managers. These money managers will take advantage of powerful upward moves and honing in on the sectors that will outperform during inflationary times. Also, being able to go defensive if the market falls and experiences a prolonged bear trend.

Allgen’s Investment Approach
Allgen specializes in active money management. Through technical and fundamental analysis, along with a contrarian mindset, we strive to navigate the markets during periods of prosperity and/or decline. We constantly research and study the markets to find the next emerging area even in asset classes that are typically not used in your “buy and hold” asset allocation portfolios. During the good times we focus on strength, and during the bad times we try to preserve wealth. During periods of stagnation, such as we are experiencing now and potentially years to come, we see ample opportunities to take advantage of this market. If you want to see how active money management may fit into your overall investment portfolio then please email us advisors@allgenfinancial.com or give us a call at 1-888-6ALLGEN (625-5436).

Written By:
Jason Martin, CFP®, CMT
Senior Partner & Chief Investment Officer
Allgen Financial Services, Inc.
martin@allgenfinancial.com

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The Nasdaq (pictured below) along with the other major indices broke below short-term support. After a failed breakout above the 1600 level which was discussed in last week’s commentary the Nasdaq has shed 10% in one week and broke below support of 1500. If the Nasdaq is unable to bounce back above 1500 then we will probably head down to the next are of support which is at 1400. The weakest areas in the market over the last few days have been banks and commodities, which had rallied strong since the market bottomed in November. To point out some major bank names and their respective price levels; Citigroup closed at $4.53 and is closing in on its November low of $3.05, a close below $3 for Citigroup would be seen as a very negative sign for the company. Bank of America closed at $10.20, its lowest close since 1992. If Bank of America closes below $10 that would be a serious break down technically and would probably lead to further down leg.

Allgen Financial Services Investment Strategy:
Over the last few days we took some profits in a commodity, more specifically a fertilizer company and we sold a community bank which had held up over the last year until this week. Are level of cash is now higher and we will maintain the higher level of cash until the market shows some sign of holding support and turning around.

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The Nasdaq broke above it’s resistance of 1600. This is something it has failed to do four times in the last two months.  It also broke above its descending 50-day moving average.  Although the breakout was on low volume, it should bode well for the technical condition of the market.  Other major indices also followed suit.  Treasuries sold off today which is good indicator that investors are starting to take more risk.  The clear leaders were commodities, energy and technology all of which were down significantly last year.
Allgen has been selling out of some bonds recently in order to reallocate back into the stocks.

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